Inflation, defined in simple economic terms, is when prices of goods and services generally increase (along with a rise in demand) whilst reducing the purchasing power of money as each unit of currency buys fewer goods and services. The 40th President of the United States, Ronald Reagan, once quipped, “Inflation was violent as a mugger, frightening as an armed robber and as deadly as a hit man.” And as this perpetrator is very much on the loose and as of the time of writing, poses a clear and present danger to family and households in the West. The global economy, in particularly those of the West, is emerging from the embers and effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and whilst still undergoing a jittery and steady recovery, inflation seems to have stalled and in some cases reverse growth in the West. In the United States inflation has hit an annual rate of 8.3% down from 8.5% in March, but still an inflation rate that remains close to a 40-year high.1 Across the pond, Western European nations are grappling, with inflation across the Eurozone reaching 7.5%.2 In addition to this, the raging conflict between Russia and Ukraine has exacerbated the inflationary pressures on the continent. This article will look at how inflation is impacting the UK population and the dangers towards diabetes prevention and what attainable steps or measures can be taken to tackle this. 



Despite the backdrop of the COVID-19 pandemic, the escalation of geopolitical tension between the US, Russia and Ukraine has now regrettably broken out into military conflict as of Thursday 24th February 2022 and has sent commodity prices soaring. As of 2019, Russia and Ukraine exported more than 25% of the World’s wheat.3 Ukraine is considered the breadbasket of Europe, as 71% of Ukraine land is agricultural. Ukraine is also home to a quarter of the World’s “black soil” or “Chernozem”, which is highly fertile. 

This conflict poses three dilemmas to the economic situation experienced in the UK. The first dilemma is that the economic sanctions imposed on Russian goods and services. This has impacted oil and gas prices as Vladimir Putin has requested that Russian oil and gas be paid for in Russian Rubles. Furthermore, Russia can place restrictions on the supply of gas and energy into Europe.

The second dilemma has been the disruption to the agricultural season. As the conflict has raged on, no crops to fewer crops have been sown, setting up an eventuality of a harsh harvest for this year.

The final dilemma involves Russia’s naval dominance and thus, control of the Black Sea. Ukraine relies heavily on the Black Sea region as 95% of Ukraine’s wheat and grain flow through and contribute to their export trade. 4 Russia’s demonstration of dominance is seen in the form of a naval blockade that cuts off shipping traffic. With food prices already high due to inflation, imports may seek alternatives. 5 However, as of recent, Russia has allowed the export of grain from Ukraine. Despite this new development by Russia, there still remains the threat and presence of food and fuel insecurity that is currently contributing to the rising cost of living. 

The UK’s rate of inflation currently stands at 9% up by 2% from March and is projected to reach 10% (5 times above the Bank of England’s target of inflation) by autumn as projected by the Bank of England (BoE).6  According to the Office for National Statistics (ONS) around 9 in 10 (87%) adults reported an increase in their cost of living. Between the period of 16th March and 27 March 2022, the most common reasons by adult for increased cost of living were an increase in the price of food shopping (88%), gas or electricity bills (83%) and price of fuel (77%).7

These findings, particularly the increase on food bill, are corroborated by the 6.7% price rise in the average UK shopping bill. The governor of the Bank of England warns that the rising global foods are a major worry.8 If not already present, the looming threat of food insecurity will greatly impact the most financially vulnerable members of our communities throughout the country. 

The concern surrounding food insecurity arises from the devastating impact it will have on those of lower socioeconomic status and the widening of health inequality associated with tackling prediabetes and Type-2 diabetes. There exists an association, though not yet understood, between low socioeconomic status and unhealthy dietary habits.9

Low income households tend to consume more energy dense foods as opposed to their higher socioeconomic status counterparts. These findings were confirmed in a Finnish study as part of the National Cardiovascular Risk Factor Survey (FINRISK)10. Though not fully understood yet, we would agree with the proffered notion that people with lower levels of education and income have less healthy dietary habits, partly because of their higher priority for prices and familiarity.11

Looking at domestic data relating to food insecurity it effects ethnicities most at risk of developing Type-2 diabetes; Afro-Caribbean and South Asians. According to data in 2020 and used in a question posed to the incumbent Mayor of London, Sadiq Khan, by Caroline Pidgeon, Leader of the Liberal Democrats in the London Assembly, 9% of ethnic minorities (then termed BAME) used food banks compared to just 1% of White Londoners.12 Ethnic minorities tend to have lower household income than their White British Median counterparts with a Bangladeshi, Pakistani and Black African household seeing household incomes lower by £8,900, £8,700 and £5, 600 respectively.13

This finding may justify why minorities in the UK are 1.5 times at risk of succumbing to food insecurities as opposed to White British counterparts.14 

The concern and sounding of the alarm surrounding the current inflationary environment and its creation of food insecurity issues affecting those of lower socioeconomic status and ethnic minorities is much very founded. Given the obesity crisis in Europe and the UK’s standing (TIPPING POINT: BODY POSITIVTY vs. WEIGHT MANAGEMENT), the risk factor being of Afro-Caribbean or South Asian descent in the development of Type-2 diabetes and impact this will have on the currently undiagnosed 1 million people living with Type-2 diabetes or who are prediabetic in the UK, and the projected forecast of 5.5 million living with some form of the condition by 2030.15 There exists as a solution or at least measure that can be implemented to mitigate this economic and public health situation. 

The first most obvious, yet complex solution is a matter of macroeconomics and involves the BoE raising interest rates in order to counter the effects of inflation. However, such a move is not with disruption upon lending, spending and the housing markets, for which is beyond the scope of this article. Needless to say, this would pose other challenges to the current economic environment. The more attainable solution and something that most can do to manage with rising food bills is to take measure that allow them to maximise the most of their purchasing power. We propose the following suggestions 16: 

1. Plan meals and stick to shopping budget. 
2. Reduce takeaways and cook more at home 
3. Cook larger meals – saving you time and money. 
4. Buy generic brands – in some cases same or better quality for less. 
5. Buy frozen foods – longer shelf life and versatility of meals. 
6. Use the traffic light system on foods bought (sauces, frozen items etc.) 
7. Buy cheaper cuts of meat. 
8. Replace meat with other sources of protein. 
9. Pack your own pack lunch – save money and utilise leftovers from larger meals. 
10. Use coupons & supermarkets reward points system. Fantastic way to save money, but particularly on items you buy frequently. Money saved can be placed into maximising shopping budget. 

To conclude, we have looked into the cause of inflation and the potential contributors to the rise of goods and service and the rising cost of living. We hope we have demonstrated that the association between increasing food prices, food insecurity, poor nutrition, low socioeconomic households, ethnic minorities and the development of Type-2 diabetes. We hope that these points from the list above are of help to you should you find that the current economic climate with the rate of inflation is placing pressure upon you and your family’s diet and nutrition. 

Inflation indeed presents itself as a major threat to the prevention from diabetes and the potential development of Type-2 diabetes. However, until there is favourable change or solution to this economic situation we would implore you to make the best financial and nutritional decision to stave off prediabetes and the development of Type-2 Diabetes. 

Signposting:

1. The Trussell Trust support a nationwide network of food banks and provides emergency food and support to people locked in poverty, whilst campaigning for change to end the need for food banks in the UK. 

The Trussell Trust 

2. Joe Wicks: The Body Coach. Very useful recipes for creating inexpensive meals that can be made quickly (15 mins) saving you time and money on gas bill. 

Instagram @thebodycoach